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Society of Petroleum Engineers,Novi Sad section, held its 7th ‘Distinguished Lectures’ session

November 24th, 2016

On November 24st 2016, SPE Section Novi Sad organized presentation, held by SPE distinguished lecturer Mr. Jim Gouveia on the subject “'Fooled by Randomness' Improving Decision Making With Limited Data”.

Professionals routinely face the challenge of making informed decisions with limited data sets. Our exploitation of unconventional resource plays has exacerbated the problem. Decision making that relies on limited data sets has been driven by competitive pressures and the desire to get to the right answer as soon as possible. Development decisions are often made without due consideration of how representative the data are. Similarly, we frequently test new technologies with limited samples, expecting that a simple arithmetic comparison of the average results can validate or refute their further application.

This talk present the theory and use of aggregation curves as a pragmatic, graphical approach to determining the uncertainty in the sampled mean relative to the desired average program outcome.

 
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